The Republican Party is pushing a major bill that aims to implement key elements of former President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda. This legislation, which recently passed in the House, is projected to increase the national debt by $2.4 trillion over the next ten years. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released an analysis highlighting that millions of Americans could lose their health insurance due to changes in Medicaid.
The CBO’s findings contradict Republican claims that the bill’s costs would be offset by spending cuts and future economic growth. These assertions were pivotal in securing support from fiscal conservatives in the House. The CBO is expected to provide further estimates that will consider potential economic growth, similar to assessments made during the previous tax cuts under Trump. However, past estimates indicated that while the impact on the deficit might lessen slightly, it would not disappear completely.
Senate Republicans are now preparing to revise the bill, which they believe will lead to significant economic growth. Senate Majority Leader John Thune emphasized that the Senate’s changes will include more substantial spending cuts than those in the House version. The bill not only seeks to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts but also aims to fulfill several of his campaign promises, such as suspending taxes on tips and overtime during his second term.
The CBO noted that the extension of the tax cuts would be the primary contributor to future deficits. To finance this plan, the Republican bill proposes cuts to safety net programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Medicaid. These changes could result in nearly 11 million Americans losing their health insurance, primarily due to new work requirements and shorter enrollment periods for Medicaid.
The CBO has faced criticism from some lawmakers, including White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, who accused the agency of political bias. However, the CBO’s findings align with other nonpartisan analyses that suggest the bill will significantly increase the deficit.
As the Senate begins its work on the bill, there are notable disagreements among Republican senators regarding key provisions. For instance, while many support the idea of work requirements for Medicaid, some senators are concerned about the extent of cuts to the program. Additionally, issues like the state and local tax deduction and the rollback of clean energy tax credits are also contentious points.
Republicans can only afford to lose three votes in the Senate, making it crucial for them to address these concerns. Senators Rand Paul and Ron Johnson have already expressed their opposition to the House version of the bill due to deficit concerns. As discussions continue, the fate of this significant legislation remains uncertain.