A major atmospheric river storm is set to impact Southern California, prompting warnings of potential flooding and landslides across the region. The storm is expected to arrive before Valentine’s Day and is predicted to be the strongest of the winter season so far, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) in Oxnard.
Forecasts indicate that the storm could deliver significant rainfall, with estimates of 2 to 4 inches along coastal areas and valleys, and between 4 to 8 inches in mountainous regions. The NWS has highlighted a 60% chance of such rainfall amounts in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, while Los Angeles and Ventura counties have a 30% chance.
Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist with the NWS, emphasized the importance of preparedness, stating that residents should brace for the possibility of extreme weather conditions similar to those experienced during the powerful storm on January 9, 2023, which resulted in mass evacuations and tragic fatalities. This upcoming storm poses a heightened risk for debris flows and mudslides, particularly in areas recently affected by wildfires, where the soil is less stable and more prone to erosion.
The storm is forecasted to begin as early as Tuesday night and could last until Thursday evening, with the most intense rainfall likely occurring from Wednesday night to Thursday night. Kittell noted that rainfall rates could reach half an inch to an inch per hour, creating conditions conducive to significant debris flows that can carry mud, rocks, and other debris at high speeds.
In preparation for the storm, local authorities are urging residents in vulnerable areas, especially those near burn scars, to stay informed about weather updates and to take necessary precautions. Kittell advised, “Prepare for the worst and hope for the best,” highlighting the need for community vigilance as the storm approaches.
The storm system is expected to weaken as it moves toward San Diego and Orange counties, but it could still bring moderate rainfall to the Sacramento Valley and significant snowfall to the Sierra Nevada, potentially impacting travel in mountain passes.
As Southern California gears up for this weather event, the region is coming off a relatively dry start to the rainy season, raising concerns about the cumulative effects of rainfall on soil saturation and the risk of flooding. Recent rainfall totals have been below average, and meteorologists have indicated that this storm could help alleviate drought conditions, transitioning the region from a high fire season to a low fire season.
Residents are advised to remain alert and prepare for the potential impacts of this atmospheric river storm, which could significantly alter the landscape and conditions in Southern California.