In September 2024, Israel launched a significant military operation against Lebanon, targeting the southern suburbs of Beirut, known as Dahiyeh. The air strikes prompted many residents to flee, including Fatima Kandil, who sought refuge in Iraq. Nearly seven months after a ceasefire in November, which Lebanon claims Israel has violated multiple times, tensions have flared again. This time, the conflict involves direct military exchanges between Israel and Iran, with Hezbollah not participating.
Kandil, now back in Lebanon, expressed her mixed feelings about the situation. While she feels satisfaction seeing missiles aimed at Israel, she also recognizes the uncertainty and fear that many Lebanese share about the future. Some residents are worried that Lebanon might be dragged into another prolonged conflict, recalling the devastation they suffered just a year ago.
The recent escalation began with Israeli attacks on Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists, which resulted in civilian casualties, including children. Hezbollah condemned these attacks but has not indicated any intention to join the fight on Iran’s behalf. Analysts suggest that Hezbollah is currently not in a position to intervene, citing its diminished military capacity after the extensive Israeli bombardments last year.
During the previous conflict, Israeli strikes primarily affected Shia areas in Lebanon, resulting in around 4,000 deaths, including both civilians and fighters. Many Lebanese are still recovering from the destruction, and the rebuilding process is ongoing. Hezbollah’s leadership has also been weakened, with key figures, including its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, reportedly killed during the conflict.
Despite the ongoing tensions, Hezbollah has not engaged in retaliatory actions against Israel, possibly due to a strategic decision to avoid escalating the situation further. Analysts believe that while Hezbollah has not been asked to intervene in the current Israel-Iran conflict, this could change if the situation worsens.
In the meantime, the sound of Israeli drones has returned to the skies over Beirut, raising concerns about potential future conflicts. While some experts suggest that Hezbollah might eventually take action if Israel struggles against Iran, for now, the group seems to be observing from the sidelines, waiting to see how the situation unfolds.