In the lead-up to a crucial NATO summit in The Hague, General Breuer has raised alarms about the growing threat from Russia. He described it as a serious situation unlike anything he has witnessed in his 40 years of military service.
Currently, Russia is significantly increasing its military capabilities, producing around 1,500 main battle tanks each year. While not all of these tanks are heading to Ukraine, they are being stockpiled and prepared for potential confrontations with NATO forces. Additionally, Russia is expected to produce four million rounds of artillery ammunition in 2024, with a portion of this also not destined for Ukraine.
General Breuer warned that there is a clear intent from Russia to bolster its military stockpiles, which could lead to an attack on NATO’s Baltic members. He indicated that analysts are concerned about a potential escalation as early as 2029, although he emphasized that NATO must be prepared to respond immediately.
The general highlighted the Suwalki Gap, a critical area bordering Lithuania, Poland, Russia, and Belarus, as particularly vulnerable. He noted the stark differences in how various European nations perceive the threat, with those closer to the conflict feeling the urgency more acutely. For instance, Estonians likened their situation to being near a wildfire, while those in Germany may only see distant smoke.
General Breuer pointed out that Russia views the conflict in Ukraine as part of a broader struggle against NATO, testing the alliance’s defenses through various means, including cyberattacks and threats to infrastructure. He urged NATO members to strengthen their military capabilities and increase defense spending to ensure readiness.
Despite some concerns about unity within NATO, especially with countries like Hungary and Slovakia having closer ties with Moscow, General Breuer expressed confidence in the alliance’s overall cohesion. He mentioned the recent decisions by Finland and Sweden to join NATO as a sign of unprecedented unity among member states.
As attitudes in Germany shift towards recognizing the importance of defense, even traditionally pacifist parties like the Green Party are supporting increased military spending. However, there are doubts about whether NATO can quickly ramp up its defenses to match Russia’s military output, especially as the U.S. focuses more on the Indo-Pacific region.
In summary, General Breuer’s comments reflect a growing awareness of the threats posed by Russia and the urgent need for NATO to prepare and strengthen its defenses in the face of potential aggression.