Islamabad, Pakistan – Tensions are escalating between India and Pakistan following a tragic attack that left 26 people dead in Baisaran, a picturesque area in Indian-administered Kashmir. This incident, which occurred on April 22, has sparked a series of retaliatory measures from both countries, pushing them toward a potential military standoff.
India has accused Pakistan of being involved in the attack, a claim that Pakistan has firmly denied. In the wake of the violence, both nations have taken steps against each other, including the expulsion of diplomats and a reduction in diplomatic missions. India has also suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty, a crucial agreement that governs water sharing between the two countries. Meanwhile, Pakistan has threatened to abandon the 1972 Simla Agreement, which recognizes the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir as a de facto border.
Despite a ceasefire agreement that has been in effect since 2021, this situation marks the most serious escalation since 2019, when India conducted airstrikes in Pakistan following a deadly attack on Indian soldiers in Pulwama. Recently, both nations have exchanged fire across the LoC, raising fears of a broader conflict.
Amid these tensions, diplomatic efforts are underway. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reached out to both Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, urging them to work towards de-escalation. Sharif has also met with ambassadors from China, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, seeking their support in calming the situation.
Moeed Yusuf, who previously served as Pakistan’s national security adviser, commented on the crisis. He noted that both India and Pakistan struggle with crisis management and often rely on third parties for intervention. He expressed concern that India’s traditional approach may not yield the expected support from the U.S. this time, as the current administration has taken a more neutral stance.
Yusuf believes that while military action from India is possible, the immediate threat of war has decreased. He emphasized the importance of preparedness on both sides, as misunderstandings can easily escalate into conflict. He also pointed out that the current situation is not conducive to peace, with both nations seemingly entrenched in their positions.
Looking ahead, Yusuf suggested that direct talks between India and Pakistan may be necessary to resolve the ongoing issues, including the status of the Indus Waters Treaty and the Simla Agreement. However, he indicated that Pakistan is unlikely to initiate dialogue without a genuine willingness from India to engage.
As the situation develops, the international community is watching closely, hoping for a resolution that can prevent further violence and promote stability in the region.