In September 2024, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised a "new Jammu and Kashmir" that would be free of violence and a paradise for tourists. Fast forward to April 2025, and that vision has been shattered. On April 22, an armed group attacked tourists in Pahalgam, killing 25 people, including a local pony rider. This tragic incident has raised tensions between India and Pakistan, with India blaming Pakistan for supporting the attackers, a claim Pakistan denies.
Since the attack, the situation has escalated. Indian and Pakistani forces have exchanged gunfire along their disputed border for three consecutive days. India has halted its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty, which is vital for Pakistan’s water supply, leading to threats from Islamabad about withdrawing from past peace agreements. Both nations have also expelled diplomats and military personnel.
In Kashmir, Indian security forces have taken aggressive measures. They have demolished the homes of suspected militants and arrested over 1,500 people in the aftermath of the attack, which is the deadliest against tourists in 25 years. Experts believe that this event has exposed significant flaws in Modi’s approach to Kashmir. Sumantra Bose, a political scientist, noted that the attack has undermined the government’s narrative of a peaceful and stable Kashmir.
The Modi government had previously revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019, arguing that it would help integrate the region more fully into India. This move was controversial and led to widespread unrest. Since then, the government has emphasized tourism as a sign of normalcy, with 3.5 million visitors reported in 2024. However, Abdullah, the newly elected Chief Minister, warned that linking tourism to stability puts tourists at risk.
Just weeks before the attack, Home Minister Amit Shah held a security meeting in Srinagar, excluding Abdullah from the discussions. This reflects a broader trend where the Indian government views Kashmir’s security primarily through the lens of its conflict with Pakistan, rather than engaging with local issues. The attack has highlighted the dangers of this approach, with some analysts arguing that it could lead to further violence.
In the wake of the Pahalgam attack, Modi has vowed to pursue the attackers relentlessly, a statement that resonates with his party’s base. Yet, this tough stance may also be politically motivated, as the BJP seeks to consolidate support in the run-up to elections. The reaction to the attack has led to increased hostility towards Kashmiris across India, with reports of violence and discrimination against Muslim communities.
The situation remains tense, and it is unclear if the Modi government will reconsider its strategy in Kashmir. Many experts believe that without genuine engagement with the people of Kashmir, lasting peace will remain elusive. The future of the Indus Waters Treaty also hangs in the balance, as both countries grapple with the implications of their actions.