Karol Nawrocki has emerged victorious in the Polish presidential runoff election held over the weekend. The conservative candidate, backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party, secured 50.89% of the votes, narrowly defeating liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who garnered 49.11%. This close contest has highlighted the deep political divisions within Poland, especially along the eastern borders of NATO and the European Union.
The election results were closely watched after an initial exit poll suggested Trzaskowski might win. However, as the counting progressed, Nawrocki’s lead became clearer, leading to a tense night for supporters of both candidates. This outcome is expected to steer Poland towards a more nationalist approach under Nawrocki’s leadership, who has been endorsed by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian, will take over from Andrzej Duda, whose term ends on August 6. While the Polish president’s role is not purely ceremonial, the prime minister holds most of the power. Nevertheless, the president can influence foreign policy and has the authority to veto legislation.
Nawrocki’s rise is seen as a fresh start for the Law and Justice party, which previously governed from 2015 to 2023 before losing power to a centrist coalition led by Donald Tusk. His selection as a candidate was strategic; he is perceived as a new face untainted by past scandals.
Before entering politics, Nawrocki headed the Institute of National Remembrance, which promotes a nationalist view of Polish history. He has also been involved in efforts to remove Soviet-era monuments in Poland, actions that have drawn the ire of Russia, which has reportedly placed him on a wanted list.
Supporters view Nawrocki as a champion of traditional values, appealing to those who oppose more liberal social trends, including increased visibility for LGBTQ+ rights. His campaign has resonated with voters who long for a return to what they see as normalcy, similar to the sentiments expressed during Trump’s presidency in the U.S.
The election has implications for U.S.-Poland relations, particularly with around 10,000 American troops stationed in Poland. Trump’s support for Nawrocki could signal a strengthening of military ties between the two nations.
As Nawrocki prepares to take office, questions remain about how his presidency will affect Poland’s political landscape and its relationship with the European Union, especially given the challenges faced by Tusk’s coalition in fulfilling its promises amid a divided parliament.