A record-setting atmospheric river has recently departed California, but meteorologists are forecasting the potential for more rain in the upcoming week. Following a less intense storm expected to sweep through Southern California on Thursday afternoon, forecasters are keeping a close eye on another system that could bring significant rainfall to the region around Valentine’s Day.
Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Oxnard office, reported that the likelihood of heavy rainfall between February 12 and February 15 has increased to 20%, up from a previous estimate of 10%. This change reflects a shift in weather patterns that could lead to more impactful storms in the area.
While the immediate storm arriving on Thursday is expected to be relatively mild, it could set the stage for a more powerful atmospheric river event later in the week. Alex Tardy, a meteorologist from the National Weather Service’s San Diego office, stated that while it is not guaranteed that Southern California will experience heavy rain, the chances have improved significantly. He noted that if the storm does materialize, it could deliver between 2 to 4 inches of rain along the coast and in the valleys, and 4 to 8 inches in the mountainous regions of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties.
Despite these predictions, the forecast remains uncertain. There is a 50% chance of moderate rainfall, but it is also possible that the region may receive little to no rain. The potential for an atmospheric river, characterized by long plumes of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, adds to the complexity of the forecast. These storms have been known to deliver substantial precipitation, contributing significantly to California’s annual rainfall totals.
The recent atmospheric river that passed through California earlier this week caused notable impacts, particularly in Northern California, where it broke daily rainfall records in cities like San Francisco and Sonoma County. The storm resulted in flooding and landslides, prompting concerns about similar outcomes in Southern California if the upcoming storm brings heavy rainfall.
As meteorologists assess the potential impacts of the next storm, they are particularly concerned about the risk of debris flows and mudslides in areas that have recently experienced wildfires. Rainfall rates exceeding half an inch per hour can trigger these dangerous events, making the intensity of the rain a critical factor in determining the storm’s overall impact.
In the meantime, Southern California is preparing for the Thursday storm, which is expected to peak between noon and 6 a.m. on Friday. Light rain may begin earlier in the day, particularly in the foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. The storm is anticipated to bring wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph in some areas, although milder conditions are expected in the Los Angeles metro region.
While the forecast indicates a chance for beneficial rainfall, the region remains cautious. Recent moisture has helped reduce wildfire risks, but experts warn that a prolonged dry spell following the rain could reignite fire concerns, especially if Santa Ana winds return in the coming weeks. With Southern California having received only 0.7 inches of rain since the start of the water year on October 1, the region’s rainfall deficit remains a pressing issue. The average rainfall for this period is significantly higher, underscoring the need for consistent precipitation to alleviate drought conditions.