A significant atmospheric river has recently passed through California, leaving behind a trail of heavy rainfall and setting the stage for more precipitation in the coming week. While the immediate impact of the previous storm was felt most acutely in Northern California, where it broke daily rainfall records and caused flooding, Southern California is bracing for its own weather challenges as forecasters predict additional rain.
Starting Thursday afternoon, a relatively weaker storm system is expected to hit Southern California, with the potential for more substantial rainfall anticipated around Valentine’s Day. Meteorologists from the National Weather Service have increased the likelihood of significant rain from 10% to 20% between February 12 and February 15. This uptick suggests that Southern California may experience a noteworthy atmospheric river event, which could deliver anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of rain in coastal and valley areas, and 4 to 8 inches in the mountainous regions.
Alex Tardy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego, remarked that while it is not guaranteed that Southern California will receive heavy rainfall, the odds have improved in recent days. He emphasized the importance of monitoring the situation closely, especially given the potential for higher rainfall totals and impacts.
The previous atmospheric river was relatively mild by the time it reached Southern California, but it still caused significant disruptions in the north, including the flooding of the Russian River and landslides in areas previously affected by wildfires. The upcoming storm could similarly affect Southern California, especially in regions with burn scars where the risk of debris flows and mudslides increases with heavy rain.
The forecast for the next storm remains uncertain, with predictions suggesting it could last from six hours to two days. Rainfall rates of half an inch per hour could trigger significant debris flows, particularly in vulnerable areas. Meteorologists have noted that the risk of such events begins to rise when rain falls at rates exceeding this threshold.
In the short term, the storm expected Thursday night into Friday morning is likely to bring light, steady rain that can be beneficial for the region, especially in terms of reducing wildfire risks. Rainfall totals for this storm are projected to be modest, with estimates ranging from half an inch to over an inch in various locations across Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
Despite the recent rains, concerns about wildfire risks remain. While the moisture will help, experts warn that a prolonged dry spell following the storms could reignite fire dangers, particularly if strong Santa Ana winds return. Historical data shows that Los Angeles has received only 0.7 inches of rain since the water year began on October 1, significantly below the average of 7.68 inches for this time of year.
As Southern California prepares for the upcoming storms, residents are advised to stay informed about the weather forecasts and be aware of potential hazards associated with heavy rainfall, including flooding and mudslides. The situation continues to evolve, and meteorologists will be closely monitoring the developing weather patterns in the days to come.