Whatever words are used to describe the plans coming out of Sunday’s summit in London, the challenges ahead for Europe’s peace plan for Ukraine are immense. The UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are optimistic that this plan could pave the way for lasting peace in Ukraine.
At the core of this plan is what Sir Keir calls the "coalition of the willing," a group of nations that would help ensure peace if an agreement is reached. However, the road ahead is not without hurdles. One major question is whether Europe can assemble a strong enough deterrent force. With many European armies and arsenals depleted, it’s uncertain if they can muster a substantial force to deploy to Ukraine. President Zelensky has suggested the need for an international force of up to 200,000 troops to maintain a ceasefire along the conflict line between Russia and Ukraine. Yet, Europe may struggle to even reach a third of that number due to years of military downsizing.
Air power is crucial for intelligence, surveillance, and repelling potential Russian incursions. Without adequate capabilities, a European force alone may find it challenging to protect Ukraine. The US plays a significant role in providing critical military support, making it difficult for Europe to establish a credible deterrent force without American backing.
Another key concern is whether President Trump will agree to provide a US backstop. Trump has expressed a preference for direct negotiations with Russian President Putin, rather than committing US troops to a potentially unstable ceasefire line. The hope is for Europe to present a credible ceasefire proposal to Trump, but so far, this outcome seems unlikely.
The big question remains: Will Russia accept the peace plan? With its ground forces currently gaining ground and the absence of US military support for Ukraine, Russia may be reluctant to compromise. President Putin has been clear about not wanting Nato troops in Ukraine and is unlikely to yield unless offered significant incentives.
In conclusion, Europe’s peace plan for Ukraine faces significant challenges, from assembling a strong deterrent force to persuading key players like the US and Russia to support the initiative. The path to lasting peace in Ukraine is fraught with obstacles that must be navigated carefully to achieve a meaningful resolution.