The likelihood of an asteroid known as 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in December 2032 has fluctuated significantly over recent weeks, prompting a mix of concern and caution among scientists. Initially detected by a NASA-funded telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, in late December 2024, the asteroid’s potential impact probability was assessed at over 1% shortly after its discovery.
As astronomers continued to gather observational data, the asteroid’s trajectory and impact odds underwent notable changes. On one occasion, the probability of a collision spiked to approximately 3%, a figure that is unusual for an asteroid of its size, which ranges from 130 to 300 feet in diameter. However, this assessment was quickly revised downward to 1.5% the following day.
Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, emphasized that while the changing probabilities might sound alarming, the overall risk remains low. "People should not really be too concerned about that," Farnocchia stated, reassuring the public about the small chance of impact.
The rapid shifts in impact probability are not uncommon in asteroid tracking. When an asteroid is first identified, scientists can only estimate its future location within a broad range. As more data is collected, these predictions can become more precise, often leading to the probability of collision decreasing to zero as the asteroid’s path is better understood.
Currently, the trajectory of 2024 YR4 is being closely monitored, with astronomers continuing to gather data until early April, when the asteroid will no longer be visible. If it were to follow a path that intersects with Earth, the potential impact zone would stretch across a "risk corridor" that includes parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, and regions in the Atlantic Ocean, Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
Historically, similar concerns have arisen with other asteroids, such as 99942 Apophis, which was once considered a potential threat to Earth. However, subsequent observations and analyses have significantly reduced the risk associated with Apophis. Currently, 2024 YR4 is categorized as a Torino Scale 3, indicating a small but noteworthy risk.
In the event of a collision, experts note that even if the asteroid were to enter Earth’s atmosphere, it could disintegrate and become a smaller meteorite, often landing in unpopulated areas or oceans, thereby minimizing potential damage. As scientists continue their monitoring efforts, they remain committed to sharing updates with the public through platforms like NASA’s Sentry webpage, where ongoing findings about near-Earth objects are published.