The ongoing issue of undocumented Indian migrants in the United States has garnered renewed attention, particularly following recent statements from both Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former U.S. President Donald Trump. The U.S. government estimates that around 18,000 Indian nationals have entered the country illegally, a situation that has prompted discussions about repatriation and the broader implications of illegal immigration.
During a recent visit to Washington, Modi emphasized India’s commitment to repatriating its citizens who are in the U.S. illegally. He also highlighted the need to address the "human trafficking ecosystem" that exploits vulnerable individuals. "These are children of very ordinary families, and they are lured by big dreams and promises," Modi stated, underscoring the desperation that drives many to seek a better life abroad.
A new study by researchers Abby Budiman and Devesh Kapur from Johns Hopkins University sheds light on the demographics and trends surrounding undocumented Indians in the U.S. The findings reveal a significant disparity in estimates regarding the size of this population. While the Pew Research Center and the Center for Migration Studies of New York suggest there are approximately 700,000 undocumented Indians, the Migration Policy Institute estimates the number to be around 375,000. In contrast, the Department of Homeland Security reported just 220,000 unauthorized Indians in 2022, illustrating the uncertainty surrounding these figures.
Interestingly, the study notes a decline in the number of undocumented Indian migrants, which dropped by 60% from its peak in 2016. This decline might be attributed to some individuals obtaining legal status or returning to India, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the surge of Indian migrants attempting to cross the U.S. border in 2023 indicates that the actual number of undocumented Indians may have risen again.
The research also highlights changing migration patterns, with a notable increase in encounters involving Indian nationals at the U.S.-Canada border. This shift has occurred alongside a rise in overall border crossings, particularly since 2021. In fiscal year 2024, encounters at the northern border accounted for 36% of all Indian crossings, a significant increase from just 4% the previous year. This trend suggests that Canada is becoming a more accessible entry point for many Indians seeking to reach the U.S.
The study identifies California, Texas, New Jersey, New York, and Illinois as states with the highest populations of undocumented Indians. Notably, Indians constitute a significant portion of the unauthorized immigrant population in states like Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. This concentration may be due to the ability of undocumented migrants to find work within ethnic communities.
Amid these developments, the number of asylum seekers from India has surged dramatically. Asylum requests from Indians increased tenfold from 2021 to 2023, with over 51,000 applications filed in the latter year. The majority of these asylum seekers are Punjabi speakers, who have historically dominated Indian asylum claims. While some claim to seek refuge from persecution, experts suggest that many may be exploiting the asylum system to gain entry into the U.S.
The motivations behind this migration are multifaceted. Wealthier regions of India, such as Punjab and Gujarat, have a long history of emigration, and families often pursue opportunities abroad to improve their economic standing. The study indicates that the cost of migration is prohibitively high, accessible primarily to those with substantial financial resources.
In terms of deportations, India has seen around 16,000 of its citizens deported from the U.S. between 2009 and 2024, with an increase in removals noted in recent years. The data reflects varying annual averages depending on the U.S. administration, with notable peaks during certain periods.
As the dialogue around undocumented Indians continues, the interplay of economic aspirations, changing migration routes, and evolving U.S. immigration policies remains a critical area of focus for both countries.