A major atmospheric river storm is set to hit Southern California soon, prompting concerns about potential landslides and flooding in the region. The National Weather Service has indicated that this storm, expected to arrive before Valentine’s Day, could be the strongest of the winter season, with rainfall amounts reaching significant levels.
Forecasts predict that coastal and valley areas could receive between 2 to 4 inches of rain, while mountains and foothills may see 4 to 8 inches or more. The likelihood of such rainfall is estimated at 60% for Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, and around 30% for Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Meteorologists are urging residents, especially those in areas prone to flooding or near burn scars from previous wildfires, to prepare for severe weather conditions.
Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard, warned that this storm could bring back memories of the devastating storm on January 9, 2023, which led to mass evacuations in Montecito and resulted in tragic fatalities due to flooding. Kittell emphasized the importance of being ready for the worst-case scenarios, noting that heavy rainfall could lead to mud and debris flows that threaten homes and infrastructure.
The storm is anticipated to start affecting Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties as early as Tuesday night and could last until Thursday evening, with the most intense conditions expected between Wednesday night and Thursday night. Areas that have recently experienced wildfires are particularly vulnerable, as the lack of vegetation can lead to increased runoff and erosion.
In addition to the potential for flooding, the storm is expected to impact travel in the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra foothills, with significant snowfall predicted at higher elevations. While the storm may weaken as it moves south to San Diego and Orange counties, forecasters are still monitoring its progress closely.
As Southern California has experienced one of the driest starts to the rainy season in recent history, the upcoming rain is crucial for reducing fire risks. Kittell pointed out that widespread rainfall of 2 to 4 inches could end the high fire season, transitioning the region to a lower fire risk for the remainder of winter and into spring.
Residents are encouraged to stay informed about weather updates and to take necessary precautions to ensure their safety as this significant weather event approaches.