Iran is contemplating a significant move that could impact global oil markets. According to reports from the Iranian news agency IRINN, a prominent lawmaker, Esmail Kosari, has indicated that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz. This comes amid escalating tensions with Israel, raising concerns about a potential broader conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for international trade. It is the only maritime passage into the Persian Gulf, bordered by Iran on one side and Oman and the United Arab Emirates on the other. This narrow waterway connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, making it a vital route for oil shipments. In fact, around 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through this strait, which the U.S. Energy Information Administration has labeled as the most important oil transit chokepoint globally.
At its narrowest point, the strait is just 33 kilometers wide, with shipping lanes even narrower, making them susceptible to disruptions. Historically, during the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988, both nations targeted commercial vessels in the region, but the strait was never fully closed. More recently, in 2019, tensions flared again when several ships were attacked near the strait, with the U.S. blaming Iran for the incidents, which Iran denied.
If Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, it would likely lead to a spike in oil prices and could escalate military tensions in the region. Even countries that do not import oil from the Gulf would feel the effects, as a reduction in supply would drive global prices up. While the Iranian lawmaker’s comments suggest a willingness to use this strategy, it remains uncertain whether Iran has the capability or intention to follow through.
The situation is further complicated by the recent conflict between Iran and Israel. Following a series of Israeli attacks on Iranian military sites, Iran responded with missile strikes. Although the U.S. has not engaged directly in these conflicts, it has military assets in the region and could respond if the Strait of Hormuz were threatened.
In summary, Iran’s consideration of closing the Strait of Hormuz highlights the delicate balance of power in the region and the potential for significant global economic repercussions. As tensions rise, the international community will be closely watching how this situation unfolds.