What Motivates Israels Decision to Strike Iran?

Israel has launched a significant military operation against Iran, marking a dramatic escalation in tensions between the two nations. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the attacks would continue "as long as necessary." The strikes began early on Friday and were aimed at military and government targets, resulting in the deaths of several high-ranking Iranian military officials, including Hossein Salami, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces. Notably, prominent Iranian nuclear scientists were also among the casualties.

These strikes occurred despite ongoing negotiations between Iran and the United States regarding Tehran’s nuclear program. Many observers suspect that Israel’s military actions are intended to exert additional pressure on Iran during these talks. Netanyahu described the operation, named "Operation Rising Lion," as a necessary step to counter what he perceives as an imminent threat to Israel’s survival.

The backdrop to this attack is Israel’s long-standing concern over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Israel maintains a military advantage in the region, partly due to its undisclosed nuclear arsenal. Netanyahu has repeatedly warned that Iran is close to developing its own nuclear weapons, a claim that Iran has denied, asserting that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. An unnamed Israeli military official claimed that Iran has enough material for 15 nuclear bombs, prompting further justification for the strikes.

International assessments of Iran’s nuclear capabilities differ from Israel’s. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently reported that Iran had not met its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. However, the IAEA did not conclude that Iran was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. In contrast, U.S. intelligence has indicated that Iran is not currently pursuing a nuclear weapons program.

Israel’s decision to attack may also stem from its recent military successes against groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. With these groups weakened, some Israeli officials see an opportunity to target Iran more aggressively. However, the risks involved are significant, given Iran’s influence across the Middle East and the presence of U.S. troops in the region.

Domestically, Netanyahu faces political pressures that may have influenced his decision to strike. Critics argue that he is using military action to bolster his political standing amid ongoing challenges, including corruption charges and a recent vote to dissolve the parliament. While many Israeli politicians have rallied around the military following the strikes, some analysts believe that Netanyahu’s actions are driven by personal political motivations rather than an immediate threat from Iran.

Legal experts have raised concerns about the legality of Israel’s actions, suggesting that the strikes may violate international law. They argue that Israel’s right to self-defense requires an imminent threat, which has not been substantiated in this case.

As the situation unfolds, the international community will be watching closely, particularly regarding potential Iranian retaliation and the implications for regional stability.