Vietnam has officially ended its two-child policy, a significant shift aimed at addressing the country’s declining birthrate and the challenges of an ageing population. This change allows couples to have as many children as they wish, with all previous restrictions now lifted.
The decision was announced this week, reflecting concerns from health officials about the potential long-term impacts of a shrinking population on Vietnam’s economy and national security. Minister of Health Dao Hong Lan emphasized that a declining population could threaten sustainable development for the country.
Historically, Vietnam’s birthrate hovered around the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman between 1999 and 2022. However, recent years have seen a drop, with the birthrate reaching a record low of 1.91 children per woman in 2024. This decline mirrors trends in other East Asian nations like Japan and South Korea, which have already faced economic challenges due to low birthrates.
Vietnam’s working-age population is expected to peak around 2040. Authorities are keen to avoid the pitfalls of an ageing society that could hinder economic growth. The two-child policy, introduced in 1988 to manage resources during a period of transition from a planned to a market economy, was strictly enforced, particularly among Communist Party members. Families that exceeded the limit often faced penalties, including loss of government support.
The shift in policy comes amidst growing concerns about regional and social disparities in birthrates. Urban areas like Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi are experiencing the most significant declines, largely due to higher living costs. Additionally, a notable gender imbalance exists, with 111 boys born for every 100 girls last year, particularly pronounced in northern regions of the country.
To combat sex-selective practices, the government prohibits doctors from revealing the sex of unborn children, although reports suggest that some still find ways to communicate this information. The General Statistics Office has warned that if these trends continue, Vietnam could face a surplus of 1.5 million men of marriageable age by 2039, which could rise to 2.5 million by 2059.
In response to these challenges, the Health Ministry is proposing to increase fines for fetal gender selection to about $3,800, hoping to discourage this practice and promote a more balanced population.
This policy change marks a new chapter for Vietnam as it seeks to encourage families to grow and ensure a sustainable future for its society and economy.