The asteroid known as 2024 YR4, which once posed a potential threat to Earth, is no longer a concern for our planet. Scientists have confirmed that it is unlikely to hit Earth but may still collide with the Moon. This information comes from recent observations made by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST).
The JWST conducted its first observations of 2024 YR4 and found that while the asteroid could have impacted Earth on December 22, 2032, that possibility has been ruled out. However, researchers noted that there is still a small chance it could strike the Moon. A second round of observations is planned for May 2025 before the asteroid moves out of sight for several years.
If 2024 YR4 were to hit the Moon in 2032, it could send debris flying into space, which might pose a risk to human operations in space. Professor Karri Muinonen from the University of Helsinki explained that such an impact could cloud the Earth-Moon system with particles that could threaten space infrastructure.
The asteroid first gained attention in January when NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) announced its existence and estimated a 1 percent chance of it hitting Earth. This raised alarms, briefly making it the highest-risk asteroid on NASA’s list. The ESA noted that impacts from asteroids of this size occur every few thousand years and can cause significant damage to local areas.
In mid-February, the odds of a collision with Earth were increased to 3.1 percent, which was the highest probability assessment for any asteroid at that time. However, by February 20, the risk had decreased to about 1.5 percent due to new observations that improved scientists’ understanding of the asteroid’s path.
2024 YR4 measures between 40 and 90 meters wide. If it were to strike Earth, it could cause severe damage within a 50-kilometer radius from the impact site. NASA continues to monitor the situation and will provide updates as new information becomes available.